Comment by proberts
17 hours ago
There's a lot to worry about but to keep the worry/analysis grounded, I think it makes sense to review what his administration did last time. And most of the damage was done to those who were illegal or seeking asylum or were from certain countries and seeking to travel to the U.S. It was awful and very disruptive to the lives of many. On the legal business immigration side, the main damage was the result of changes in policy and the way regulations were interpreted and applied. This included doing away with the deference given to previously approved applications when extensions/renewals were sought. This was disastrous, resulting in the denial of applications for people who had been employed in the U.S. by the same employer for years. The Biden administration immediately undid this when it took office. The other major change was in changing/increasing the requirements for getting H-1B and O-1 visas and extraordinary ability green cards. The Biden administration undid some but not all of these changes. There is concern that a Trump administration would undermine the H-1B program as well.
They also divorced the H4 renewal process from the H1B process.
USCIS had consistently renewed H4 visas along with the primary H1B application. Since H1Bs can pay for premium processing this meant both would usually be renewed within a month.
The Trump administration added a completely unnecessary biometrics requirement to the H4 renewal application (even if you had literally got your biometrics done a week ago) which meant the H4 application was now separated from the H1B application and now took at least a year to process.
Considering one can only apply for a renewal 6 months before expiry this led to tens of thousands of H4 visa holders losing the ability to travel, and having their EADs expire forcing them to quit their jobs.
This was a completely malicious action with the only purpose being to make people’s lives worse.
Is there any reason to think that Trump will ramp things up if he gets a second term? Particularly since the Supreme Court is so thoroughly conservative now?
It would make sense to expect some ramp up because immigration is a stronger electoral issue than it was previously, and because a second Trump administration will probably be more coordinated and effective in implementing its goals than the first one was. Given how laden with unintended consequences any change in immigration policy is, though, there are probably some limits on the rate of change that would be possible and politically prudent.
For example, without undocumented immigrants, milk would be a lot more expensive (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/magazine/milk-industry-un...). The current election is showing us quite starkly how significant grocery staple prices are in shaping public perception of a nation's economic health.
> For example, without undocumented immigrants, milk would be a lot more expensive (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/magazine/milk-industry-un...). The current election is showing us quite starkly how significant grocery staple prices are in shaping public perception of a nation's economic health.
This strikes me as a bit tone deaf. These people are paid slave wages to do this work. They have unsafe housing conditions. They pay cartel fees to get across the border. Their "employers" are breaking the law. The government looks the other way. Personally, I'd be willing to pay more for milk (or any grocery product) if Americans were doing the jobs and getting paid fair wages with good benefits.
It gives me Kelly Osbourne on The View vibes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8INEYLFWwc
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