The actual story here is that it's slowing down because the lower tail is growing, not because the upper tail is compressing as we hit some kind of upper limit of human longevity. That is: more people are actually dying younger, which has been gradually offsetting other people living longer.
That’s the exact opposite conclusion of this paper.
“Our analysis also revealed that resistance to improvements in life expectancy increased while lifespan inequality declined and mortality compression occurred.”
I wonder if "life expectancy" is really such a useful metric, since it aggregates so many different things together. It's kind of like measuring "aggregate years of human life lived".
It's still useful because it provides some information. Specifically, a change in life expectancy, or a change in the rate of change in life expectancy (as here) means something. We just don't necessarily know what that something is without further study.
If not forever, but if 200-ish becomes a norm, it would be super awesome. Now, it is like, “Awesome, I know this, I know that. I need to learn that.” “Hold on, time to die.”
I assure you many aspects of a society where 200 years old becomes a normal life expectancy would be a hellscape and not "awesome." We already currently have a massive societal and economic problem with aging populations as things currently are.
The problems are due to what aging involves and the lack of young people inverting the population pyramid; getting us to 200 at all means solving every age-related biological problem, while also meaning we have longer to start a family and have kids to stabilise that population pyramid.
Come on wouldn't it be great fun with a dozen diseases, broken hip bone, shitting in diapers (if one can afford) people celebrating their 177th birthday. Seems people would sacrifice their first born if such dream life is guaranteed.
The macroeconomic implications of that large a fraction of the population being above working age or such a large fraction of one's life not being working years are not exactly great.
Apart from the fact that "working age" doesn't mean the same thing in a world that has anti-aging interventions?
Our economic system is incompatible with the next 200 years irregardless of what specifically gets invented.
At 5%/year, that's a factor (not percentage) of 17292 growth; in energy terms that's not quite boiling the oceans, but it is making the poles the only barely livable zone.
In any sense besides energy, this kind of growth implies automation that makes the meaning of work radically different than today. Human or superhuman AI would be an example of that, but the successful creation of that has other complications that we can currently only guess at with less awareness than the Victorians had of climate change or biodiversity loss.
It seems reasonable to expect it to grow even at a diminished rate until everyone enjoys equivalent access to health care, nutrition, occupational safety etc but that is subject to the political environment, priorities of the electorate and the capacity of the economy. Without pandemic, famine, war or natural disaster a decline in life expectancy is generally the result of public policy for a rich democracy and not an inevitability.
I think we need to distinguish between longevity and health though. Lots of people live with chronic disease and giving them more quality of life counts for more than longer life IMO.
If someone said “my son has stopped wetting the bed”, would you reply “did you expect them to wet the bed forever”? What if someone said “my leg no longer hurts”, would you reply “did you expect it to hurt forever”? How about “my bag of candy is almost empty”, would you reply “did you expect it to be full forever”?
The information that something stopped or slowed down is still useful without having to think it was going to go on eternally. It allows you to adjust your plans for the future.
I understand some tech billionaire want to live forever by eating hundreds of pills a day for nutrition, anti-aging, disease control etc. Their life may be "great" for some definition of great.
But do billions of people on earth think that their life will become great in another 50 years even if it is rather miserable right now? I just live under rock to not know the desires of modern human.
The actual story here is that it's slowing down because the lower tail is growing, not because the upper tail is compressing as we hit some kind of upper limit of human longevity. That is: more people are actually dying younger, which has been gradually offsetting other people living longer.
That’s the exact opposite conclusion of this paper.
“Our analysis also revealed that resistance to improvements in life expectancy increased while lifespan inequality declined and mortality compression occurred.”
I wonder if "life expectancy" is really such a useful metric, since it aggregates so many different things together. It's kind of like measuring "aggregate years of human life lived".
It's still useful because it provides some information. Specifically, a change in life expectancy, or a change in the rate of change in life expectancy (as here) means something. We just don't necessarily know what that something is without further study.
If not forever, but if 200-ish becomes a norm, it would be super awesome. Now, it is like, “Awesome, I know this, I know that. I need to learn that.” “Hold on, time to die.”
200 at what qualitative life point currently? 80? 90? 100?
Spending an other 100 years like say from 80 to 100... Well you are alive, but still...
My grandfather lived to 104. More impressive was that he still played tennis regularly in his 90s.
It's not his lifespan I aspire to, but his healthspan.
I assure you many aspects of a society where 200 years old becomes a normal life expectancy would be a hellscape and not "awesome." We already currently have a massive societal and economic problem with aging populations as things currently are.
The problems are due to what aging involves and the lack of young people inverting the population pyramid; getting us to 200 at all means solving every age-related biological problem, while also meaning we have longer to start a family and have kids to stabilise that population pyramid.
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Come on wouldn't it be great fun with a dozen diseases, broken hip bone, shitting in diapers (if one can afford) people celebrating their 177th birthday. Seems people would sacrifice their first born if such dream life is guaranteed.
1 reply →
The macroeconomic implications of that large a fraction of the population being above working age or such a large fraction of one's life not being working years are not exactly great.
Apart from the fact that "working age" doesn't mean the same thing in a world that has anti-aging interventions?
Our economic system is incompatible with the next 200 years irregardless of what specifically gets invented.
At 5%/year, that's a factor (not percentage) of 17292 growth; in energy terms that's not quite boiling the oceans, but it is making the poles the only barely livable zone.
In any sense besides energy, this kind of growth implies automation that makes the meaning of work radically different than today. Human or superhuman AI would be an example of that, but the successful creation of that has other complications that we can currently only guess at with less awareness than the Victorians had of climate change or biodiversity loss.
It seems reasonable to expect it to grow even at a diminished rate until everyone enjoys equivalent access to health care, nutrition, occupational safety etc but that is subject to the political environment, priorities of the electorate and the capacity of the economy. Without pandemic, famine, war or natural disaster a decline in life expectancy is generally the result of public policy for a rich democracy and not an inevitability.
I think we need to distinguish between longevity and health though. Lots of people live with chronic disease and giving them more quality of life counts for more than longer life IMO.
If someone said “my son has stopped wetting the bed”, would you reply “did you expect them to wet the bed forever”? What if someone said “my leg no longer hurts”, would you reply “did you expect it to hurt forever”? How about “my bag of candy is almost empty”, would you reply “did you expect it to be full forever”?
The information that something stopped or slowed down is still useful without having to think it was going to go on eternally. It allows you to adjust your plans for the future.
> my mother died
> did you expect her to live forever?
And then some.
I understand some tech billionaire want to live forever by eating hundreds of pills a day for nutrition, anti-aging, disease control etc. Their life may be "great" for some definition of great.
But do billions of people on earth think that their life will become great in another 50 years even if it is rather miserable right now? I just live under rock to not know the desires of modern human.